This Week in Mets: Resetting the National League wild-card race (2024)

“There is no seeming now. All is is.”
—“Independence Day,” Richard Ford

The New York Mets’ longest road trip of the season didn’t start the way they wanted, with a series loss against the underwhelming Los Angeles Angels. With the trade deadline behind us, and with a strange August schedule in front of us, I thought this represented a good time to reset a National League wild-card race that has shifted considerably just in a couple of weeks since the All-Star break.

At that point, Atlanta was comfortably ensconced as the first wild card, and five teams were within two games of one another for the next two spots. But scorching starts to the second half by the Padres and Diamondbacks have changed the dynamic.

The Mets are 9-7 since the break, which has pushed them from the third wild-card spot to just outside looking in. New York’s playoff odds, which were as high as 59.9 percent on July 26 (and as low as 7.9 percent on June 2) now stand at 41.1 percent, according to FanGraphs. The Mets’ remaining strength of schedule is .490 (according to Tankathon) — easier than all but six teams in baseball.

Atlanta

Record: 60-51
Playoff odds: 84.1 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .495
High point / low point: 99.5 percent (April 26) / 69.9 percent (July 26)
Record since All-Star break: 7-9

Through the Mets’ lens: It’s started to get that feel that maybe this just isn’t Atlanta’s year, not with season-ending injuries to Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. and the perplexing season-long struggles for Matt Olson. Of course, the last time it felt this way, Atlanta traded for Jorge Soler at the trade deadline and watched him become World Series MVP. It’s running back that script, and Olson hit four homers last week alone. The Mets could only split a recent series with a depleted Atlanta squad, which doesn’t make you confident they can chase down their longtime rivals.

San Diego

Record: 61-52
Playoff odds: 75.6 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .482
High point / low point: Today / 26.1 percent (April 29)
Record since All-Star break: 11-3

Through the Mets’ lens: No team in baseball is as hot as the Padres, who after losing seven of eight around the All-Star break have won 11 of their last 13. Xander Bogaerts has returned from his shoulder injury and looks a lot more like himself than he did in the first few months of the season, and San Diego’s lineup looks more potent than it has at any point in the season. GM A.J. Preller was his typically aggressive self at the trade deadline, attempting to build a super bullpen by acquiring Tanner Scott and Jason Adam.

The Mets play a four-game series in San Diego as part of an enormous road trip later this month.

Arizona

Record: 60-52
Playoff odds: 66.1 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .510
High point / low point: Today / 17.6 percent (June 28)
Record since All-Star break: 11-4

Through the Mets’ lens: The Diamondbacks are right behind the Padres in the wild-card standings and since the break. Arizona has averaged better than six runs per game over the last month, and its pitching staff should get much healthier in the second half. The D-Backs got next to nothing in the first half from the trio of Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery. Anything resembling their usual production will transform the rotation.

The Mets visit the Diamondbacks after that series with the Padres at the end of this month.

St. Louis

Record: 57-55
Playoff odds: 20.6 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .522
High point / low point: 55.6 percent (July 8) / 10.4 percent (May 11)
Record since All-Star break: 7-9

Through the Mets’ lens: Like the Mets, the Cardinals rebounded from a harsh start with an excellent 50-game stretch (32-18) to get back into the postseason picture. They’ve cooled since then, with an offense still waiting for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to play like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. St. Louis brought back Tommy Pham at the deadline, and he hit a grand slam in his first at-bat as a Cardinal in six years.

Pittsburgh

Record: 56-55
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .512
High point / low point: 37.6 percent (April 8) / 6.1 percent (July 7)
Record since All-Star break: 8-7

Through the Mets’ lens: The Pirates’ offense remains their concern; they rank second from the bottom in the National League in runs. The additions of Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa help but maybe don’t move the needle enough to make up the gap in the standings.

San Francisco

Record: 56-57
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .497
High point / low point: 48.2 percent (March 30) / 10.3 percent (August 3)
Record since All-Star break: 9-7

Through the Mets’ lens: The Giants were supposed to be built for the second half of the season, with Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb returning to the rotation and Blake Snell hopefully rounding into form as usual. They may have undercut that structure at the deadline: Cobb is in Cleveland, and Soler was shipped to Atlanta and replaced by former Met Mark Canha.

The exposition

The Mets started this extended road trip by losing two of three in Anaheim. New York dropped to 58-53 and 1 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot.

The Cardinals lost the rubber game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field on Sunday. St. Louis is 57-55 and three games out of the final wild-card spot.

The Rockies also lost the rubber game of their three-game series in San Diego on Sunday. Colorado is 41-72 and 19 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot.

The Mariners couldn’t finish off a sweep of the Phillies on Sunday. Seattle is 59-54, good enough for a one-game lead in the American League West.

The pitching possibles

at St. Louis

LHP Sean Manaea (7-4, 3.50 ERA) vs. RHP Andre Pallante (4-5, 4.04)

at Colorado

RHP Luis Severino (7-4, 3.93) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (3-4, 5.64)
RHP Paul Blackburn (5-2, 4.11) vs. RHP Ryan Feltner (1-10, 4.97)
LHP David Peterson (5-1, 3.47) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (3-7. 4.66)

at Seattle

LHP Jose Quintana (6-7, 3.95) vs. RHP Bryce Miller (8-7, 3.62)
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (6-8, 3.05)
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Luis Castillo (9-10, 3.43)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• Starling Marte was in Anaheim performing baseball activities with the club. He’ll now head to Port St. Lucie for the next week, and the Mets will see if he’s ready for a minor-league rehab assignment.
• Both Reed Garrett and Sean Reid-Foley appeared in minor-league games on Sunday. Garrett now seems ahead of Reid-Foley for a return, though both could happen this week.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Worcester (Boston)
Double-A: Binghamton at Somerset (New York, AL)
High-A: Brooklyn vs. Hudson Valley (New York, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie vs. Bradenton (Pittsburgh)

Last week in Mets

• In his first start, Paul Blackburn was everything the Mets wanted
• Scouts break down the players the Mets acquired around the trade deadline
• Why the Mets targeted a minor-league reliever who was in independent ball earlier this season
• The deadline may have been disappointing, but that’s OK
• Why David Stearns and the Mets were happy with the deadline
• On the acquisition of Paul Blackburn, and a trade grade
• TWIM: On winning in the margins for the Mets

Trivia time

The Mets have won only three games in Seattle in their history (in a meager nine tries). That .333 winning percentage isn’t the Mets’ worst in an American League road city. Which American League team has been the hardest for the Mets to beat outside of Queens?

HINT: The Mets haven’t played in this city as much as they have their traditional AL East interleague opponents — but they’ve played there more than their non-traditional AL Central and AL West opponents. Hmm.

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Pete Alonso: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton